This study, carried out within the framework of contract no. O3.02.03-24-2282 in partnership with Natagora, focuses on modelling the probability of presence of the Red Kite (Milvus milvus) and the Black Stork (Ciconia nigra) across Wallonia.

The report begins with a presentation of the collection and validation of opportunistic and nesting data obtained from various organisations and data holders. This first section also describes the full range of biotic and abiotic environmental variables analysed as part of the study.

The second section details the methodology used to select the most relevant environmental variables, notably through correlation analyses and Random Forest approaches. It then presents the species distribution models (SDMs), the different modelling steps, and the results obtained from the compilation of several models (GLM, RF, MaxEnt, GBM), each iterated 30 times. The resulting maps highlight the probabilities of presence of the Red Kite and the Black Stork according to different probability thresholds, helping to better identify potential areas of species presence.

Finally, in light of the results obtained, the report provides a series of recommendations aimed at strengthening protection measures for the Black Stork and the Red Kite.